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Myanmar is one of the world’s most climate vulnerable countries considering both climate risk and coping capacity. Its extreme vulnerability results from a combination of geographic location, exposure to diverse weather events, low-income status, and unstable governance structures. Myanmar also experiences significant threats from natural disasters including cyclones, landslides, earthquakes, and droughts. Natural disasters alone cost Myanmar about 3% of its GDP every year. Climate change is already resulting in more frequent and severe disasters such as extreme heat, devastating cyclones, frequently recurring floods and storm surges, droughts and consequent climate-driven migration, and loss of productivity in the agriculture sector, among others. While the different geo-climatic regions across Myanmar face unique challenges there are certain similarities in the hazards experienced. Across the country, the most dominant climate hazards are intense rainfall, extreme heat, and droughts, as well as resulting flooding or water scarcity.
The country’s climate is projected to shift dramatically in the coming decades:
In every region in Myanmar, temperatures are expected to rise by the middle of the 21st century by 1.3°C–2.7°C. Warming varies by both season and region, with the cool (November–February) and hot (March–May) seasons projected to see the most warming.
The eastern and northern hilly regions are projected to see the most dramatic warming among all regions of Myanmar, with hot season average temperatures rising by up to 3°C.
During 1981–2010, Myanmar had about one day of extreme heat per month. In the future, projections show that Myanmar could experience anywhere from four to 17 days of extreme heat each month.
Changes in rainfall patterns are projected to vary by region and season, with increases projected during the monsoon season, while both increases and decreases are possible the rest of the year.
Sea level rise projections for the coastline range from 20 cm to 41 cm by mid-century. Although projected cyclone severity and frequency changes are still uncertain, coastal flooding both during and independent of cyclones will worsen as sea levels rise.
Building resilience and tackling the adverse impact of climate change should be an urgent priority for all. In a context of conflict, the risks for vulnerable, conflict-affected communities increase, and the local capacities to respond to multiple and overlapping threats, decrease. While conflict is currently the largest contributor to displacement, as one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world, climate change is also slated to displace many people throughout the country. Simultaneously, displaced people disproportionately move to urban areas, demonstrating a need to support both displaced persons and their host communities to create climate resilient, inclusive, and sustainable human settlements.
Moreover, inadequate technical and human resources along with limited awareness also result in limited data and information relating to climate change and its consequences. These are key resources to promote a data-driven approach to climate action planning which is critical to accelerate local climate action.
